SATURDAY, OCT. 1: Assumption 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Pana 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Westervelt 7 a.m. to 7 a.m. Palmer 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Owaneco 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
SUNDAY, OCT. 2: Assumption Noon to 6 p.m. Pana Noon to 6 p.m. Westervelt 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. Palmer Noon to 5 p.m. Owaneco Noon to 6 p.m.
Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month
Last
Change
Open
High
Low
Close
Time
More
Dec 22
678'0
8'0
669'4
696'2
669'2
677'4s
09/30
Mar 23
684'4
8'0
676'0
702'0
675'6
684'0s
09/30
May 23
685'0
7'0
677'4
702'2
677'2
684'4s
09/30
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month
Last
Change
Open
High
Low
Close
Time
More
Nov 22
1366'0
-46'0
1410'4
1425'6
1363'2
1364'6s
09/30
Jan 23
1375'0
-45'0
1420'2
1435'0
1374'2
1375'4s
09/30
Mar 23
1383'0
-41'4
1424'4
1439'2
1382'2
1383'2s
09/30
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month
Last
Change
Open
High
Low
Close
Time
More
Dec 22
923'2
25'2
899'6
945'6
892'6
921'4s
09/30
Jul 23
909'6
13'2
899'0
932'0
895'6
912'2s
09/30
@YM - E-MINI DOW JONES $5 - CBOT
Month
Last
Change
Open
High
Low
Close
Time
More
Dec 22
28821.00
- 484.00
29264.00
29549.00
28767.00
28801.00s
09/30
My Custom Markets
Symbol
Last
Change
Open
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Closing Market Comments
9-30-22
December corn futures finished today's session 8 cents higher at $6.77 1/2, November soybeans were down 46 cents at $13.64 3/4, and December wheat in Chicago was 25 1/4 cents higher at $9.21 1/2.
Trade was mixed to start today’s session as final positioning took place ahead of the USDA quarterly stocks and small grains reports as well as month and quarter end. Much of the fundamental news in the market remains the same, mainly the logistic issues in the United States than have pushed freight rates to record highs. Barge draft restrictions have cut capacity by 50% and drove basis higher at the gulf. We are now seeing buyers walk away from the US as timely shipping cannot be counted on. This will further narrow the window for US sales in the global market. Building tensions in the Black Sea continue as Russia moves forward with the annexation of occupied states. This has all but ended export interest from the region. The global economy also remains a major factor with the European Union reporting inflation of 10%. China’s PMI came in better than expected though which was positive. The US is going to place sanctions on countries doing oil trade with Iran which includes China and may further strain trade relations. Harvest is gaining momentum across the US and incoming yield reports will be closely monitored. So far, a large number of “better than expected” reports have been heard.
The highlight of today’s session was the release of the quarterly stocks and small grains summary reports. For quarterly stocks the USDA published a corn inventory report as of September 1st of 1.377 billion bu (bbu), 135 million bu (mbu) less than trade was expecting. This was still an increase of 12% from September 1st, 2021. The USDA also revised the 2021 corn crop downward by 41.4 mbu to a total of 15.07 bbu. Of the corn in storage, 509,500 mbu was on farm and 867,400 mbu was off farm. The shock for the market was the September 1st soybean inventory of 274 mbu, 32 mbu more than trade guessed. This was a 7% increase on the year. The primary reason for the higher soybean figure was an upward revision to the 2021 crop of 30 mbu. Soybean storage is split with 62,930 mbu on farm and 210,800 mbu off farm. The US wheat inventory was as expected, and little changed from last year at 1.776 bbu. Wheat storage had 591,100 mbu on farm and 1.185 bbu off farm. In addition to these numbers the 2022 small grain production data was released. The USDA put total 2022 US wheat production at 1.65 bbu, nearly equal to the 2021 final. This was 128 mbu less than trade was expecting though as planted acres were revised downward by 4% to 35.5 million.
Corn futures found support today from light month end short covering. Very little has changed in the corn complex this week although we are starting to see more harvest pressure. Interior basis values are starting to soften from the pushes we were seeing earlier to try and encourage movement. Weakness in the processing market is also weighing on corn bids. Gulf basis remains strong but given the US logistic issues this is not working its way into the interior market. Doubts are increasing over the Black Sea export future as the corridor is likely to close in mid-November. Corn planting in Argentina is currently reported at 6% versus the normal 17% as farmers wait for rains to develop. Forecasts indicate these should start to fall in the next week. The most negativity in corn right now is the US being overpriced in the global market which has cut exports in half from last year. For the week December corn gained ¾ cent.
Soybeans were on both sides of unchanged today but did benefit from technical short covering. Soybeans put in a low on Wednesday and have worked higher since. US soybean sales remain firm with a 10% higher volume being booked than a year ago. Crush margins remain strong benefiting interior demand as well. We are starting to see more hedge pressure on soybeans which is capping gains, along with several reports of higher than expected yields. Reports that Brazil is going to halt crushing at 8 to 10 plants could easily bring the US more soy product business. At the same time, this will also provide Brazil with more whole soybeans to export. Until US logistics improve, and we become more price competitive, it will be hard to justify any increase in projected demand. November soybeans lost 61 cents for the week.
Wheat trade was rather lethargic to start today with little fresh interest being shown early in the session. The most interest in the wheat complex is on Black Sea production and exports, much as it has been for several weeks. Russia has now announced that its farmers will not be able to sell wheat directly into the global market which may further slow their already poor export performance. Russia keeps raising its crop estimate but that does little good if buyers cannot get the grain. Global food security worries have put a floor under the wheat complex for now. The greatest hindrance for wheat is the spread between the US and the world market. December wheat in Chicago gained 41 cents this week.
The US hog and pig inventory report showed that as of September 1st there were 73.8 million head of hogs in the country. This was just under trade estimates and down 1% from September 2021 but was an increase of 2% from June 2022. Market hogs totaled 67.6 million which was also down 1% on the year and up 2% on the quarter. Given the fact the June to August pig crop was down 1% we may see lower numbers again in the December release.
News from the Coop
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