Good afternoon. Grain markets were lower for a second straight session to start the week, as selling was present right from the 8:30am central time re-open this morning. Volume was nearly identical to yesterday in both corn and soybeans, as trade remains significantly constrained due to the unknowns ahead in the market over the next week.

CK closed Tuesday at 4.57 and 3/4, down 6 and 3/4. CN was down 6 and 3/4 also at 4.65 and 1/4. SK finished at 10.01 and 3/4, down 5 and 1/2 cents. SN was down 4 cents at 10.15 and 1/2. WK closed at 5.43 and 1/4, down 5 cents. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 295.10, down $2.50/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 42.30, up 15 points. Livestock markets were mixed/higher, April live cattle closed at 206.37, up 47 cents, April feeders closed at 284.85, down 40 cents, and April hogs closed at 86.65, up 95 cents. Cattle markets were nearly $3 off the lows made earlier in the day, while hogs had a gap-higher open this morning. Outside markets are quiet/lower, crude oil futures are down 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points. The S&P500 is near unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 130 points. New highs for the move in crude oil and all three of the stock index futures, and an inside day for the $ index. Gold futures are around $10/oz higher, and have traded a similar range to Monday.

Spreads were lower, corn spreads ended the day unchanged to 4 and 3/4 cents lower, and soybean spreads were down a half cent to down 5 and 1/2 cents. CK/CN closed at -7 and 1/2 which was unchanged on the day, and SK/SN closed at -13 and 3/4, down a penny and a half.

We find it interesting that volume has fallen off so sharply, so quickly, this early in the week. Had this occurred the back half of the week on Thursday/Friday, we wouldn't be overly surprised, but that it has occurred really from the start of the week, has been a bit head scratching. There is just nobody that has a lot of interest in trying to outguess what President Trump may say next in regards to tariffs, with it being our assumption that this has more to do with the anxiety this week than the stocks/acreage data on Monday. There are rumblings that the corn acre number in the report could possibly exceed expectations, but in our view, the bigger market shock would come from that number surprising on the downside; the trade has priced in a big corn acre number and there have been private estimates in the 95+ mil ballpark for months now. And in either case, we wouldn't see this as a reason for holiday-like volume an entire week before the data will be released.

Headlines on Tuesday included reports that representatives from the US had reached separate agreements with both Russia and Ukraine on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, and also agreements to stop attacking each other's energy facilities. Comments from the Russian side signaled at least some level of distrust though, as foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said in televised that comments that his side would only sign the deal if Washington issued an order to Ukraine that they must respect it. It is unclear what the next steps are, or whether these demands will cause the agreements to fall apart. The announcements come following multiple days of uni-lateral discussions between the three side in Saudi Arabia the first two days of this week.

Mid-day weather forecasts for the US are slightly drier through the end of this week across the Midwest, but still see moisture potential every couple days into the first part of next week. The heaviest rainfall will be seen in south Texas near the Gulf and also further north across the Great Lakes and into the northeast, but the Corn Belt will see mostly light/scattered totals. Week two outlooks are also marginally drier at mid-day, but this solution will need to be seen for several days before we are confident in its solution. Heat caused by ridging will shift around the country into the first weeks of April, but the bottom line remains that temperatures will continue to be above average for the most part.

South American weather also didn't see a lot of change at mid-day, with forecasts continuing to trend wetter over the next 5-10 days in both Argentina and Brazil. Improving moisture throughout Brazil's eastern growing regions is helping to alleviate some of the temperature stress here, but forecasts still show an above average temp profile into the first of April; Argentina looks to remain mostly below average, aside from the far northeast. While rains are improving, the 30-day % of normal precip maps still show a wide majority of Brazil's eastern ag belt in the lower 25% of historical normal rainfall, which will need to see improvement as we get into April.