Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Ag markets ended the week lower as hedge selling going into the weekend and spillover from the macro markets pressured values through the day. Corn and soybeans were in the green to start the day session, but started lower shortly before 9am central time and stayed in that trend the rest of the session. Crude oil/soybean oil, as well as the major stock indices, all also began selling off near the same time, with a specific catalyst lacking.
CZ ended the week at 4.06 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents. CH was down 4 3/4 at 4.24 1/2. SX closed at 10.05, down 18 1/2 cents. SF finished at 10.22 1/2, down 19 cents. All four contracts had outside days lower after making new highs for the week this morning. WZ closed at 5.67, down 7 3/4. Products were lower, October bean meal closed at 320.80, down $1.60/ton, and October bean oil closed at 40.21, down 1.48. Red ink in the livestock markets as well, October live cattle closed at 175.17, down $2.07, October feeders closed at 230.95, down $3.62, and October hogs closed at 79.50, down $1.20. New lows for the week today for all three. Outside markets are also trading mostly lower, crude oil futures are down $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 450 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is down 90 points, and the NASDAQ is down 475 points. Continuing with the day's apparent them, all three stock indices, crude oil, and the $ all made new lows for the week on Friday.
Spreads were mixed, corn spreads were up a quarter cent to down a penny and 3/4, and soybean spreads were up a half cent to down 3 cents. CU/CZ ended the week at -22 1/2, down a penny and 3/4, and SU/SX ended the week at -15 3/4, down a half cent.
For the week: December corn was up 5 and 1/4; March corn was up 5 and 1/2; November soybeans were up 5 cents; January soybeans were up 5 and 1/2; and December Chicago wheat was up 15 and 1/2.
This morning saw weekly export data for the week, delayed a day because of the holiday on Monday. Data for the week ending August 29th showed another strong week of new crop sales, while old crop cancelations to wrap up the marketing year were slightly bigger than expected. Old crop corn sales were seen at (173k) mt's, and old crop soybean sales were seen at (228k) mt's. On the new crop side, corn sales were seen at 1.823 mmt's, which was above the upper end of trade expectations. Featured buyer for the week was again Mexico, who booked 806k mt's; Colombia booked 207,500 mt's and Japan booked 163k mt's. Unknown destinations in the week booked 475,800 mt's. New crop soybean sales were seen at 1.659 mmt's, which was in trade expectations. Featured buyer for the week by a large margin was China, who booked 1.002 mmt's. Unknown destinations in the week booked 474,200 mt's. And lastly, wheat sales for the week were seen at 340k mt's, which was within trade expectations but at the lower end. Mexico was the featured buyer, booking 51,800 mt's.
Other data Friday included the regular CFTC commitment of traders report, which showed for the week ending September 3rd funds were buyers across the board in the ag space. Managed money traders were buyers of a combined 65,697 combined contracts of corn futures/options, making them now net-short 176,211 contracts. In soybeans, managed money traders were buyers of 23,640 combined contracts of futures/options, making them now net-short 154,096 contracts. And lastly in Chicago wheat, managed money traders were buyers of 13,577 combined contracts of futures/options, making them now net-short just 42,624 contracts.
In soy products, funds were buyers of 20,752 contracts of combined soybean oil futures/options, and were buyers of 18,042 contracts of combined soybean meal futures/options. This makes funds now net-short 47,527 contracts of soybean oil, and net-long 23,171 contracts of soybean meal.
Otherwise, the US ag trader continues to be in 'hurry up and wait' mode, with harvest still not quite started in all areas. Next week's September WASDE report has also produced a bit of a risk-off approach this week, as participants are curious as to whether USDA will further raise yield estimates. We see corn carry out likely staying in the 2.0 bil bu ballpark, while soybean carry out has the potential to grow further if production is increased again.
Another round of weaker than expected jobs data was the main cause for the sell-off in the equity markets this morning. Non-farm payrolls in the month of August increased 142k, while economists had expected an increase of 161k. Data from July was also revised lower from 114k to 89k. Some analysts have voiced a hint of caution though over taking the data at face-value due to varying return-to-school dates that affect the seasonality in the Labor Department's model. The initial August payrolls numbers have been revised higher in 10 out of the last 13 years. Data today also showed the unemployment rate in August coming in at 4.2%, which matched trade expectations. July unemployment was unrevised at 4.3%.
Mid-day weather has trended wetter in the Delta region, as models continue to get more on board with the odds of a tropical storm system bringing rainfall up into the Mississippi River valley into the end of next week. Ridging in the central part of the country with a trough in the northwest allows flow to come more northward from the southwest underneath the trough which then helps pull Gulf moisture north. The EU models have had this the last 24 hours, but the GFS has come on board as of the 12Z run at mid-day today. On the temp side, this ridging also allows heat to return to the central part of the country next week.
Parts of northern Argentina and southern Brazil have trended wetter in the 10-day period, though the start of the monsoon season is still several weeks out. We continue to reiterate that dryness in Brazil does not become a major factor until at least early October. Heat will be the greatest in southern Brazil/Uruguay, while the rest of Brazil and Argentina see temps that are some 2-4 degrees C above avg. Elsewhere, heat is seen slightly relenting in Australia as better rain chances continue to be seen in the 10-day forecast. In Europe, rains are seen making their way further east in the 10 day period into Ukraine, but heaviest amounts will still be focused on central and western Europe. Heat begins to move eastward and looks to be confined mostly to western Russia by the middle of the month.
Have a good weekend! And if you're a producer, have a safe start to harvest if you're able to get going!
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