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Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month
Last
Change
Open
High
Low
Close
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May 23
644'4
11'2
631'0
645'0
627'4
643'0s
02:33P
Jul 23
623'6
12'2
610'0
624'2
607'4
623'0s
02:30P
Dec 23
560'6
8'0
551'4
560'6
549'2
560'2s
02:33P
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month
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May 23
1429'4
8'6
1419'4
1432'0
1405'0
1428'2s
02:33P
Jul 23
1407'4
7'6
1398'4
1411'0
1383'6
1406'2s
02:30P
Nov 23
1274'0
15'2
1258'0
1276'6
1247'4
1273'2s
02:30P
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
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May 23
690'0
26'4
660'2
700'4
656'2
688'4s
01:30P
Jul 23
700'6
26'0
673'0
711'4
668'6
700'0s
01:30P
@YM - E-MINI DOW JONES $5 - CBOT
Month
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Jun 23
32419.00
100.00
32381.00
32466.00
31945.00
32319.00
02:33P
My Custom Markets
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Closing Market Comments
3-24-23
May corn futures finished today's session 11 1/4 cents higher at $6.43, May soybeans were up 8 3/4 cents at $14.28 1/4, and May wheat in Chicago was 26 1/2 cents higher at $6.88 1/2.
Buying interest finally surfaced on the commodity market giving grains and soybeans some much needed end of week support. Initial advances were in the wheat complex and the result of Russia indicating it may half exports of that grain in the near future. The lack of confirmation of Russia selling wheat to China was also supportive as it leaves the door open for more US business. Another flash sale on corn to China gave that complex support today along with spillover strength from wheat. Soybeans were supported by a reprieve from recent liquidation. Renewed European banking concerns supported commodities today as it did bring some managed money back to the market. There is already some early talk of a dry end to the US growing season this year which is generating some risk premium being added to futures. While this is not an excessive amount, it gives us the indication trade may not be overly comfortable with US production forecasts.
Corn futures were stronger to start today as fresh buying entered the complex. This was the result of technical short covering, but also from ongoing sales to China. Another daily sale of 8 million bu (mbu) was announced today, bringing the weekly total to 25 mbu. Even with this business year to date corn sales still trail last year by 34% and are 5% under expectations which is capping market reaction. China is also making several purchases of Brazil corn from July forward, leaving less additional business for the US. Delays to the start of the Argentine harvest are supporting US sales. The question now is if China will take delivery of all of this corn or is going to use it as a hedge against South American purchases. We are starting to see some doubt in the market on projected corn plantings of 91 million acres. While profitability and economics support this number, Mother Nature may have other plans. It will take time to melt the US snowpack in the Upper Plains and dry soils in other regions and the start of the planting season in these areas is now just a few weeks away. May corn futures finished the week 8 ¾ cents higher.
Soybeans were firm today as light short covering and buying finally surfaced in the complex, but not before the May contract set a new low for the move. All soybean contracts are heavily oversold on the charts, but funds remain long, and this is keeping the momentum in the complex to the downside. The spread between the US and Brazil is a main source of pressure for the complex as well. US Gulf origin soybeans are currently being offered at $1.10 over futures. Soybeans out of Brazil have a basis of 75 cents under futures. This is giving Brazil an edge in the market of $68.00 per metric ton and attracting nearly all import interest. We continue to hear rumors of Brazil soybeans being sold to the US with the vessel count up to three. This has not been confirmed but not hard to believe given the spread in price. Simple availability is also giving imports credibility. US crush margins are heavily depressed which is also capping buying interest in the domestic market. It is not hard to build a case where the bulk of US soybean demand for the marketing year is behind us. May soybeans finished the week down 48 ¼ cents.
Wheat was the leader to start the session today as active short covering took place. This was initially spurred by reports that Russia may suspend wheat exports due to low values. This generated some head scratching as Russia sets their export values which are well below the global market. Russia needs revenue and suspending exports will not remedy this situation which caused some to doubt a suspension will actually take place. Late in the session Russia clarified they have no interest to suspend exports, but that exporters need to keep what values above the cost of production. Even so, there are thoughts this may bring the US some export demand. European wheat values continue to soften, and this is capping the global market as well. We are staring to hear some doubt over US acres as current conditions are not favorable for spring planting. The main concern is the heavy snow cover in the Upper Plains and Midwest. We did see drought conditions improve in the US Wheat Belt this week, but much more precipitation is needed as the crop continues to exit dormancy. May wheat in Chicago was 22 cents lower on the week.
The cold storage report for February 2023 showed a decline in total red meat supplies of 3% from January but a 2% increase from February 2022. Beef in cold storage totaled 500.2 million pounds, 6% less than in January and 6% less than in February 2022. Pork in cold storage totaled 526.2 million pounds at the end of February, just above the volume from the month before but a 9% increase on the year. The frozen pork belly supply totaled 70.95 million pounds, up 1% from January and 42% more than last February.
A hindrance for the commodity market at the present time is an abundant amount of uncertainty. One of the main uncertainties right now is on the global banking situation and what it means for both commodity production and demand. This is also keeping managed money interest in commodities low, and that is what is needed to maintain values at today’s levels and more importantly to give us a rally. We are also seeing uncertainty over potential US acres this year and growing season weather conditions. Reports from the country support the higher acreage estimates from the USDA, but weather conditions are raising some doubt, especially on the corn planting forecast. We are now starting to see long-range outlooks that are calling for dry conditions across the US by late summer as the El Nino system strengthens. These factors call for the addition of risk premium, but commodity values are already at elevated values compared to the global market, especially on soybeans and wheat.
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