Good afternoon. The USDA's October WASDE report failed to offer much in the way of supportive data for corn, soybean, and wheat markets, which led to values drifting lower in the hour's following the report's release. Market participants will now likely quickly turn their attention back to the global weather situation, with forecasts in both South America and western Russia/eastern Europe gaining in importance by the day. With the US supply situation now mostly known, it will take a new demand development or a hiccup in supply elsewhere to get the markets excited going forward.

CZ ended the week at 4.15 3/4, down 2 3/4. CH was down 3 1/4 at 4.33. SX closed at 10.05 1/2, down 9 1/4. SF finished at 10.21, down 10 1/2 cents. WZ was down 4 3/4 at 5.99. Outside day lower for wheat and also the first lower close this week. Products were lower, December soybean meal closed at 315.10, down $1/ton, and December soybean oil closed at 43.33, down 43 points. Livestock markets were mixed, December live cattle closed at 187.57, down 70 cents, November feeders were down 15 cents at 249.80, and December hogs closed at 77.65, up 70 cents. Inside day for live cattle and new rally high for the hog market. Outside markets are trading mixed, crude oil futures are down 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 415 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. Inside days for both crude oil and the US$. The S&P500 is up 35 points, and the NASDAQ is up 40 points. New contract highs today for both the S&P and the Dow.

Spreads were mixed in corn to end the week, while being firmer in soybeans. CZ/CH closed at -17 1/4, up 1/2 of a cent, and SX/SF closed at -15 1/2, up a penny and 1/4. SX/SF traded to its highest level today since August 1st.

For the week: December corn was down 9 cents; March corn was down 8 3/4 cents; November soybeans were down 32 1/4 cents; January soybeans were down 35 cents; and December Chicago wheat was up 9 1/4 cents.

USDA this morning announced daily sales flashes of 132,000 mt's of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year; and also announced 577,928 mt's of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year. As a reminder, the 'received in the reporting period' verbiage typically refers to a group of sales that individually would not have been large enough to require daily reporting, but combined would be larger than the daily reporting volume requirement.

Headlines in the ag space on Friday obviously focused on the morning's October WASDE release which as previously mentioned, did not not do much to alter the current market outlook. Starting with production numbers in the US, corn production was estimated at 15.203 bil bu's which was up just 18 mil bu from last month; average yield was estimated at 183.8 bpa, up 0.2 bu from last month and still a new US record. Soybean production was seen at 4.582 bil bu's which was just marginally lower than last month; yield was estimated at 53.1 bpa, unchanged from last month. At the state level, USDA still sees seven states either setting or tying their all time yield records in both corn and soybeans. Of note, Indiana corn yield was down 3.8% from last month, and Ohio corn yield was down 2.1% from last month; on soybeans, Indiana yields were down 4.8% on the month and Ohio yields were down 5.5%.

Digging into the balance sheets, changes here were also rather minimal. Corn ending stocks for the 2024/25 season were seen just below 2 bil bu's at 1.999 bil bu's; the majority of this monthly decline was a result of a 51 mil bu reduction in 2023/24 stocks. This, along with a 25 mil bu increase in exports, more than offset the 18 mil bu increase in production. Old crop feed and residual use was raised 39 mil bu. Soybean ending stocks were unchanged from last month at 550 mil bu, with next to no notable changes made anywhere on the balance sheet.

On the global side, corn ending stocks were lowered marginally from last month but almost matched trade expectations, and soybean stocks were nearly unchanged from last month, and also almost matched trade expectations. There were no changes to production estimates of either corn or soybeans in the coming season in South America. Other notable updates included Ukraine's corn production being trimmed by 1 mmt which caused an equal decrease in exports, and China's corn imports being trimmed by 2 mmt's to 19 mmt's.

Wheat numbers were mostly as expected on both the US side and the global side; US production was down 10 mil bu from last month to 1.971 mil bu, and ending stocks were down 16 mil bu to 812 mil bu. Global ending stocks came in at 257.72 mmt's, compared to 257.22 last month. Notable adjustments here included a 1 mmt production cut in both the EU and Russia, and a 0.6 mmt increase in Ukraine; Ukraine's exports were also raised 1 mmt, while the EU's exports were trimmed by 1.5 mmt's.

This week's CFTC commitment of traders data for the week ending October 8th showed another fairly heavy week of buying across the corn and soybean markets. Managed money in the week were buyers of a combined 43,971 contracts of corn futures/options, buyers of a combined 21,798 contracts of soybean futures/options, and sellers of a combined 6,496 contracts of Chicago wheat futures/options. Funds are now seen net-short 23,729 contracts of corn, net-short 21,798 contracts of soybeans, and net-short 29,449 contracts of Chicago wheat. In soy products, funds were buyers of 16,700 contracts of soybean oil, and sellers of 6,621 contracts of soybean meal; this makes them now net-long 32,503 contracts of soybean oil, and net-long 96,588 contracts of soybean meal.

Mid-day weather runs continue to trend wetter in the west/central part of the US in the 10-15 day period, which is raising confidence in their solution. Exact locations are likely to vary in the days ahead, but a departure from the near complete dryness across the country over the last few weeks will be more than welcome. Until then however, dryness looks to remain in place for all but the far northeast, where light rains are expected the first half of next week. As we mentioned this morning and a few other times this week, frost potential remains highly likely for a good portion of the Midwest the first part of next week as well. The cold air doesn't look to last though, as warmer than average air returns to the central US by the end of next week.

Southern Brazil sees near daily chances at rainfall into the middle of next week, with the heaviest accumulated totals estimated near 4-5"; most of the area though will see a more general 0.5-1" between now now and October 18th. Far northeast Argentina is also forecast to receive some of the heavier rains, with the majority of the growing regions also seeing a lighter 0.5-1" of precip. Actual rainfall amounts in these areas between now and the end of the month will likely have a rather large influence on price direction.