Good afternoon. Unlike last week, corn and soybean markets started the week higher at the CBOT this week, as buying was present from the word go. There really wasn't a specific catalyst to the day's rally, but both daily and weekly export news was good this morning, and traders also cited a round of short covering as possible reasons for the upward action. And as weather has remained dry, the trade is expecting this afternoon's crop progress report to show another busy week of harvest progress through the Midwest, further switching the attention of the market to a new growing season in South America.

CZ closed at 4.09 1/2 on Monday, up 4 3/4. CH was up 4 1/4 at 4.23 1/4. Outside day higher for both. SX closed at 9.81, up 11 cents. SF finished at 9.89 3/4, up 7 cents. WZ was down 1/2 cent at 5.72 1/4. Inside day for Chicago wheat. Products were higher, December soybean meal closed at 318.30, up $2.70/ton, and December soybean oil closed at 42.39, up 57 points. Also an inside day for bean oil. Cattle markets were lower to start the week, December live cattle closed at 186.82, down 50 cents, and November feeders closed at 246.60, down $1.00. Inside day for both. December hogs closed at 78.27, up 45 cents. Outside day higher and a new high for the move for hogs. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up $1.30-1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 325 points, and the US$ index is up 50 points. The S&P500 is down 15 points and the NASDAQ is near unchanged. Inside day for crude oil and an outside day for the US$ index.

Spreads started the week stronger for both corn and soybeans; corn spreads were a half cent to 2 cents higher, and soybean spreads were up a penny and a half to up 6 cents. CZ/CH closed at -13 3/4, up 1/2 cent, and SX/SF closed at -8 3/4, up 4 cents. New high for CZ/CH at -13 1/4; SX/SF did not take out Friday's high at -7. The ZW/ZH wheat spread also made a new high for the move today at -18 3/4.

USDA extended their daily sales flash streak into the new week this morning, announcing daily sales for now the fifth straight session. The following were announced: 169,926 mt's of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/25 marketing year; 130,000 mt's of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2024/25 marketing year; 198,192 mt's of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year; 116,000 mt's of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year; and lastly, 264,000 mt's of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year. Cash sources indicate the corn sale to unknown is likely Mexico, while the smaller unknown soybean sale is thought to be the EU, and the larger is thought to be China.

Weekly inspection data for the week ending October 17th also leaned friendly corn and soybeans this morning - corn inspections for the week were seen at 1.00 mmt's, up more than 97% from last week's revised total; cumulative inspections for the marketing year are now 31% ahead of last year. Soybean inspections for the week were seen at 2.434 mmt's, which was up nearly 28% from last week and a new marketing year high; cumulative inspections for the marketing year are now just 3% behind last year. And wheat inspections for the week were seen at 268k mt's, which was down 30% from last week; cumulative inspections for the marketing year are 34% ahead of last year. Of note, last week's corn inspection numbers were revised higher by nearly 75k mt's, and last week's soybean inspections were revised higher by nearly 330k mt's.

Private companies in Brazil over the weekend are reporting soybean planting progress in the country that is advancing, but still well behind last year's pace; AgRural estimated the 2024/25 seeding campaign to be 18% complete as of October 17th, compared to 8% last week and 30% last year. Same group also mentioned that first corn planting in the center-south region of the country had reached 48% as of October 17th, which is now ahead of last year's pace of 46%. Similarly to comments made by Patria AgroNegocios mentioned in our mid-day comments, officials from AgRural said this week that improvements in rainfall in most all of the country's growing regions would likely lead to increased seeding pace in the second half of October. Brazil's B3 corn futures closed more than 1% higher on Monday, after trading to their highest level since January earlier in the day.

The 12Z GFS weather run at mid-day is noticeably dryer than the overnight solution for the rest of this week in the southwest/central part of the US, but continues to show a band of rainfall through the central part of the Midwest the middle of next week; totals look to range from 0.2-3" from southwest Missouri up through Michigan and into Canada. Models also show several systems bringing rainfall to the Pacific Northwest next week, with the heaviest amounts of up to 10" in some local areas seen further north up the Canadian coast. And on the temp side, mid-day updates both in the short term and the long term were minimal as things look to remain mostly above average this week, while week-two forecasts see a trough of low pressure bringing colder temps to the west, while the east stays warmer than average.

The forecast for South America continues to see minimal updates; days will alternate between periods of rainfall and sunshine over the next 10-15 days, which will be conducive to both planting and crop development. Argentina looks to receive up to 3" of rainfall tomorrow and Wednesday before four or five days of dryness emerges into next week, while central Brazil sees light/scattered precip chances almost daily; the one generally dry area will be southern Brazil into Uruguay, but soil moisture here was better than other areas at the start of October meaning it can withstand a bit of dryness.