6.24.24

 

 

Good afternoon. Markets started the new week mixed at the CBOT, as the grains were lower and the soy complex was higher. Old crop corn futures traded to double digit losses on the 8:30 re-open, then quickly recovered and closed only marginally lower. Soybean futures cleared last week's highs near mid-morning, and finished a penny above the high settlement mark from last week.

 

CN closed Monday at 4.33 1/2, down 1 1/2. CZ was also a penny and 1/2 lower at 4.51 3/4. Old-crop corn traded to its lowest level since the contract lows were made in February, while new crop Dec corn traded to its lowest level since September of 2021. SN closed at 11.75 1/4, up 14 3/4. SX was up 10 1/2 at 11.30 1/2. Outside day higher for new crop beans. WN closed at 5.52 1/2, down 9 cents. This the lowest close in July Chicago wheat since March 15th. Products were mixed, July bean meal closed at 372.80, up $11/ton, and July bean oil closed at 43.49, down 45 points. New three-week highs for meal. Cattle markets were higher Monday, August live cattle closed at 184.82, up $1.67, and August feeders closed at 258.90, up 52 cents. Live cattle traded their highest level since last Fall. July hogs closed at 89.95, down $2.10. Hogs are within a dime of their contract lows. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 300 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points.

 

Spreads closed mixed to start the week, corn spreads were down a penny and 1/2 to up 1/2 cent, and soybean spreads were 1/2 to 4 cents higher. CN/CU closed at -6, down 1/2 cent, and SN/SU closed at 44 3/4, up 3 3/4. SN/SX again made new highs for the move today.

 

USDA this morning announced daily sales of 228,000 mt's of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2024/25 marketing year. This is the first meal flash sale since April 18th, which was also to the Philippines.

 

A lot of the talk in the ag markets Monday was again weather related, though different from last week; excessive rainfall and flooding in the NW Midwest has caused significant issues, with parts of Minnesota and Iowa reporting in excess of 15" of rainfall in the past week. Elsewhere in the Corn Belt, models see ridging in the Southeast lasting through July, which is the crucial month for corn yields in the US. Monday also featured a heavier than usual data schedule, as the CFTC commitment of traders report was pushed to today due to last week's holiday.

 

The report showed that for the week ending June 18th, managed money traders were buyers of 20,817 combined contracts of corn futures/options, sellers of 30,090 combined soybean futures/options contracts, and sellers of 7,616 combined contracts of Chicago wheat futures/options. That makes managed money net-short 191,462 contracts of corn, net-short 105,970 contracts of soybeans, and net-short 52,732 contracts of Chicago wheat. In soy products, fund traders sold 9,128 contracts of soybean oil on the week, making them net-short 84,973 contracts; and funds bought 6,371 contracts of soybean meal, making them net-long 99,279 contracts.

 

Also out this afternoon will be the weekly crop progress update, which the trade expects to show a worsening scenario for both the corn and soybean crop. The average trade guess for corn conditions in the g/ex category is 69%, which would be down 3% from last week. The average guess on soybeans is 68%, which would be a 2% decrease. Many traders believe the flooding in the Northwest will have an effect on national yields that the markets are not currently pricing in.

 

For demand news on Monday, the weekly export inspections report was mostly as expected for all three of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Corn inspections for the week ending June 20th were seen at 1.118 mmt's, compared with trade guesses in a range of 850k-1.4 mmt's. Current pace is up 28% from last year. Soybean inspections were seen at 342k mt's, compared with trade guesses of 200k-400k mt's. Current pace is down 16% from last year. And wheat inspections were seen at 343k mt's, compared with trade guesses of 300k-500k mt's. Current pace on new crop wheat sales is up 38% from the 2023/24 season.

 

Stock index futures were mixed to start the week amid a lack of market moving data. The NASDAQ and the S&P have backed off recent all-time highs, as traders begin to question and analyze what tech star Nvidia's actual revenue will be. This week's highly anticipated Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on Thursday will also potentially make equity traders a little jittery through mid-week.

 

Weather forecasts trended wetter over the weekend and that pattern has remained through the mid-day runs on Monday for the central Corn Belt. The ridge begins to move further South, which allows thunderstorms to impact more central areas starting mid-week. The GFS continues to be the wetter of the two models through the end of this week, but both see up to 4" of rainfall for parts of MO/IA/IL. And week-two forecasts see average to above average chances at precip for most of the Corn Belt in the first week of July. Temps top out on Tuesday generally speaking for the Midwest, with more seasonally average air due into the coming weekend. Highs will still be in the mid/upper 90's for the Plains and Southeastern US.

 

On the global side, models added a narrow strip of moisture for Russian wheat areas East of the Black Sea in the 10-day period, and also shifted to a cooler temp outlook in the same time frame as cool air moves out of far Western Russia and more into the wheat belt. China remains hot in the North, while moisture is confined to the South and the East. In South America, not a lot of change on the rainfall side, as models still see a band of storms impacting Southern Brazil/Uruguay over the next week. Temps have cooled though for the whole of the continent, with Brazil becoming more seasonally average, and Argentina being slightly below average.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Quotes are delayed, as of June 25, 2024, 07:44:13 AM CDT or prior.

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