Good afternoon. Selling emerged Wednesday at the CBOT as the strong run to start the week came to a screeching halt. Soybeans led the mid-week decline, with corn and wheat futures closely in tow. As has been the case the previous two days, a fundamental reason is lacking for the big price moves; though open interest did decline in all three of corn, soybeans, and wheat.

CN finished mid-week at 4.58 1/2, down 8 1/4. CZ closed at 4.81 1/4, down 7 1/4. SN was 18 3/4 cents lower at 12.27 3/4. SX closed at 12.13, down 15 cents. WN finished 8 3/4 lower at 6.34. Products were lower, July bean meal closed at 378.50, down $4.70/ton, and July bean oil closed at 43.79, down 71 points. Cattle markets were lower, June live cattle closed at 176.47, down $1.15, and August feeders closed at 252.40, down $2.02. June hogs closed the day 40 cents higher at 98.72. Outside markets are mostly green, crude oil futures are trading 70 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 150 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. Crude oil is working on an outside day higher.

Spreads were mostly lower, corn spreads closed a half to 2 cents lower, and soybean spreads were generally 1-4 cents lower. CK/CN closed at -13, while SK/SN closed at -15.

Volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future in ag futures, as even beyond Friday's report varying weather forecasts will cause sizeable position moves by fund managers. The next 10-15 days are critical for Midwest planting as the forecasts look to turn back wetter for the second half of May. Grumblings of prevent plant talk are growing by the day, with producers in the East noting they haven't turned a wheel yet.

This morning's weekly ethanol report showed another light week of production in the week ending May 3rd. Daily production came in at 965k bbls, which was at the lower end of trade expectations. This was down 2.2% from last week, and was the exact same as the same week last year. Stocks for the week were seen at 24.200 mil bbls, which was well below the lower end of trade expectations. This was down 5.1% from last week, but up 3.9% from the same week last year. This was also the lowest stocks number since December of 2023. Corn use was estimated at 96.16 mil bu; this brings cumulative use to 3.595 bil bu's, compared with the USDA's marketing year forecast of 5.375 bil bu's.

Also of note out of this morning's EIA report, US gasoline and diesel demand hit their weakest seasonal levels since the Covid pandemic in 2020. Four-week average gasoline demand for the week was seen at 8.63 mil bpd, while four-week average demand for distillate fuels was seen at 3.60 mil bpd. Analysts are at odds with whether the weakening demand is a sign of stagnating economic activity, or an illustration of the growing share of renewable fuels replacing conventional fossil fuels.

China announced on Wednesday it had approved the safety of gene-edited wheat for the first time as the country moves forward with the commercial growing of genetically modified food crops. China is the world's largest wheat producer and consumer, which makes the approval a rather large deal for the country. According to one seed industry executive, "It is a big step, we can see the light for China to open up approvals for other food crops." Earlier this year, Beijing announced several GM corn and soybean seed varieties that had been approved for use in the country.

Financial markets were relatively subdued again on Wednesday, as tomorrow's weekly jobless numbers look to be the only real notable data on the week aside from corporate earnings. Dow futures did manage an outside day higher today, despite the lack of fresh news.

Again not a lot of change seen for the general overall weather pattern at mid-day. The GFS sees moisture for the South slightly farther West than the GFS model over the next week, but otherwise the models are in good agreement. One more storm system affects the Northern/Eastern Corn Belt between now and Friday, before a drier trend emerges through next week. The CPC is again trending wetter beyond May 16th, which means planting progress between now and then is critical. Close attention will need to be paid for signs of confirmation on this pattern. Temps cool in the East over the weekend, before returning to a slightly warmer bias next week.

South America continues to see the same pattern; soaked areas of RGDS in the far South are slated to receive up to 8 additional inches of rainfall over the next 10 days, bringing totals to 25+" in some areas. North/Central Brazil remains almost completely dry. Argentina continues to see frost risk over the next week, with cool temps stretching into Southern Brazil.