Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Commodities closed the session mixed. The trade is hopeful that despite contrary messages coming from the U.S. and Chinese governments, that a resolution to the trade war is getting closer. Conflicting reports circulated today regarding the ongoing trade situation with China. Some media outlets reported that overnight Chinese officials said they were considering suspending the 125% tariff currently imposed on some U.S. imports of goods they classify as "critical" due to rising economic pressures. Others reported China has said there are no ongoing trade negotiations, and that talks would only happen after the U.S. lifted its recent unilateral tariffs. The Trump Administration expects to be able to announce several trade deals in three to four weeks. Japan, S Korea and India are expected to be included.

CK ended the week at 4.78 and 3/4, up 1 and 1/2. CN also firmed 1 and 1/2 to 4.85 and 1/2. CN25 futures continued to rebound from losses seen earlier in the week. SK closed at 10.49 3/4, down 3 and 1/4. SN was 2 and 3/4 lower at 10.59 and 1/4. SN25 futures marked a fresh 2-month high before pulling back.  WK ended the week at 5.30, up 3/4. Products were mixed. May soybean meal closed at 290.00, up $1.30/ton. Bean oil closed lower after surging out to its highest level since Dec-23 in the overnight trade, ending the day at 49.28, down .37 cents/lb. Livestock markets also ended mixed. June live cattle closed at 208.250, up $.75/ton, May feeders closed at 290.525, up $1.450/ton, and June hogs closed at 101.150, up 85 cents, resuming their rally after a small setback on Thursday. Outside markets are also mixed. Oil and fuel prices continued their choppy trading pattern this week. Crude oil futures are up 25 to 45 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is off 36 points, and the US$ index is moderately higher. The S&P500 is up 33 points, and the NASDAQ is up 190 points. Gold futures are lower at $3,316.0/oz in the June contract.

Spreads were steady to firmer to wrap up the week; corn spreads finished unchanged to 2 and 1/4 cent higher. Soybean spreads were down 1/4 to 2 and 1/4 cent. CK/CN closed unchanged at -6 and 3/4, and SK/SN closed at -9 and 1/2, down a 1/2 cent.

For the week: May corn is down 3 and 1/2 cents; July corn is off 4 and 3/4 cents; May soybeans improved 13 and 1/4 cents, July soybeans are up 11 and 1/2 cents; May Chicago wheat is down 18 and 3/4 cents; May soybean meal is $5.60/ton lower at $290.00; and May soybean oil is down 141cents/lb. at 47.87.

The University of Michigan today said its final index of consumer sentiment for April was 52.2, down from 57 in March. The reading was an improvement on a preliminary print of 50.8 earlier in the month. "Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead," said Joanne Hsu, the survey's director. Although sentiment measures have been impacted by tariffs, economic data remains relatively solid- though there are signs of consumer caution as home sales yesterday were reported to have fallen 5.9% in March, the slowest pace since 2009, adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and stoking economic concerns. Next week, U.S. GDP will be released on Wednesday as will official Chinese PMI numbers. U.S. PCE will be out on Thursday, and the U.S. jobs report on Friday.

USDA this morning announced daily sales flashes of 235,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 130,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year and 105,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year. The Chinese have been pretty quiet on the bean buying front this week, but were reported to have picked up a few cargos of Brazilian beans for July, August, and February, and one out of Argentina for June late this week. The export line up for feed grains remains routine.  

CFTC commitment of traders data was released after the market close today, showing funds as of Tuesday, April 22nd were net-long 112,805 combined contracts of corn futures/options, which was down just 11,768 contracts on the week. The report also showed funds were net-long 31,067 combined contracts of soybean futures/options (+4,898 on the week), and also net-short a combined 89,929 contracts of Chicago wheat futures/options (+6,510 on the week). In soy products, funds were seller of 3,911 contracts of soybean meal, which makes them net-short 73,511 contracts, and were buyers of 9,940 contracts of soybean oil, which makes them net-long 50,899 contracts in this market.

Midwest weather forecasts have trended wetter in the mid-south and southern Midwest over the last 24 hours. The Midwest looks wet into next week, while week two forecasts continue to show a drier pattern beyond the first few days of May. Temperature-wise, some pockets of brief cooler air are expected next week, but overall, the pattern appears to be above average daytime highs for most of the country into the second week of May.  

To the south, Argentina is expected to see limited precipitation over the coming week but looks wetter next weekend. At this time, conditions look favorable for late season crops. Brazil’s monsoon is still expected to conclude the end of next week, indicating a dry bias for the center west and center south crop areas. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal.

Ongoing trade deal discussions and planting progress are expected to remain the main themes in the coming days and will likely drive key market direction next week.

Have a good weekend!