Good afternoon. Ag markets at the Board of Trade spent most of Tuesday working lower to sharply lower, with ongoing liquidation ahead of first notice day tomorrow and a forecast that remains conducive to early season crop development being the main themes for the session. Wheat futures performed the best out the bunch relatively speaking but still made new contract lows for the day, while corn and soybeans each saw heavy selling in the old crop months that also led to a notable weakening of spreads.

CK closed Tuesday at 4.60 and 1/2, down 15 cents. CN was down 13 at 4.70 and 1/4. SK finished at 10.41, down 11 cents. SN closed at 10.52 and 3/4, down 9 and 3/4. WK was down 9 and 3/4 at 5.05 and 3/4. WN closed at 5.25 and 1/2, down 5 and 1/2. New contract low for WN at 5.23 and 3/4. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 290.50, up $3.50/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 48.85, down 1.06 cents/lb. Livestock also finished Tuesday mixed, June live cattle were up 60 cents at 210.20, August feeders closed at 296.90, up $1.95, and June hogs closed at 99.45, down $1.55. New contract highs again for both of the cattle markets. Outside markets are mixed as well, crude oil futures are trading $1.40-1.80/bbl lower, the Dow Jones index is up 370 points, and the US$ index is up 10-20 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points and the NASDAQ is up 60 points. Gold futures are down around $20/oz and are having an inside day.

Corn spreads took a dive on Tuesday and soybean spreads were mixed/mostly lower; CK/CN closed at - 9 and 3/4, down 2 cents, and SK/SN closed at -11 and 3/4, down a penny and 1/4. CK/CN matched its contract low at -10 and WK/WN made a new contract low at -19 and 3/4.

USDA this morning announced that private exporters reported daily sales flashes of 120,000 mt's of corn for delivery to Spain during the 2025/25 marketing year, and also 110,000 mt's of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year. Of note, this was the first flash soybean sale since April 11th, which was also to unknown.

Tuesday to a large extent brought about the same news cycle as was seen on Monday and several other days in recent weeks, with US-China trade relations remaining at the forefront and yesterday afternoon's planting progress update showing an expectedly quick start to operations on both corn and soybeans. Soybean planting at 18% complete as of April 27th was the furthest along for that date ever, topping the previous records set in both 2024 and 2023. Corn planting at 24% complete is pretty much right in the middle of recent years, and leans neither bullish or bearish. What delays there are continue to be in the southern tier of the Corn Belt for the most part, but expected high pressure ridging into the middle of the month of May should allow for these areas to get caught up hopefully in the next 3-4 weeks. Otherwise, its tough to find something to be critical of from an agronomy standpoint to this point early in the season.

The latest news on the trade front includes nothing new with China, though it would appear deals remain close to being announced with both Japan and India. A Fox news reporter this morning, citing White House sources, said that the trade deal with Japan still could be a week or so away from being announced, adding that discussions were ongoing surrounding purchases from the Alaska LNG (liquified natural gas) pipeline. And on India, President Trump told reporters that he thinks there's a deal on tariffs but gave no official announcement, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that he had a trade deal pending with a country that would be not named, adding he was waiting for approval from said country before making an announcement. Paired with the comments from Trump, it would seem some sort of deal with India is likely close to being announced. Other tariff news for Tuesday included reports from Trump, as well as other White House officials, regarding an expected announcement at an event in Michigan this evening on a drawback in auto tariffs that are expected to help the US auto industry. The reductions in duties seem to be focused on part imports, with the announcement coming just days before additional 25% duties on part imports was set to go into effect.

Weather news was little changed on Tuesday, with forecasts for the Midwest continuing to call for a drier pattern in the eastern half of the country beyond the next week, as high pressure ridging allows warmth and dryness to become the dominant features here. In the meantime, models continue to see additional rain chances over the next week for most of the south and southeast, with the heaviest totals seen through Texas and Oklahoma. There will also continue to be severe weather risks through the mid-south for another few days, though the risks seem to be less severe than they were yesterday and last night.

Global weather saw a wetter shift in the 10 day period for China through the day on Tuesday, and also kept with the wetter forecast for most of Ukraine in the same period. Argentina trended wetter and Brazil trended drier, but shifts in South American weather are lessening in market importance by the day.

There simply wasn't a lot new on Tuesday that would have any impact on corn and soybean pricing in the short term. Spread action was a function of first notice day, while rhetoric regarding trade deals that may or may not be signed is causing exhaustion on behalf of traders. The US ag export window typically slows during the summer months anyway, which means as far as commodities like corn, beans and wheat are concerned, the tariff issues are more a 2025/26 problem than a 2024/25 problem. This brings us to the May WASDE report in another couple weeks, which will give the first look at the balance sheets for next year, and hence the government's first look at what effects the new measures might have. It is our assumption that price action stays choppy between now and then, with a supply-based weather rally needed but not on the horizon to push values to the upside.