Tuesday saw another day of choppy price action at the CBOT today, as soybean and wheat markets closed lower and the corn market closed higher on another day of not a lot of new news. Yesterday afternoon's unexpected jump in soybean conditions was the main reason given for the downward price action there, but otherwise, the chatter throughout day two of this week was rather similar to what was heard on day one, with traders still focused mostly focused on crop sizes and weather.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $4.01 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.19 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -18 1/2, down 1/2 cent; new contract low at -18 3/4

📋 Market Headlines:

• Brazil's CONAB late on Monday showed similar harvest progress numbers to other private groups, and indicated the country's safrinha corn harvest has reached 41.7% complete, compared to 74.2% last year and the give-year average of 51.1%.

• Monday's crop condition ratings showed a steady week for G/EX ratings, with 74% of the crop still rated in this category, which compares to 68% last year. The report also showed corn silking at 34% compared to 39% last year, while the amount of the crop in the dough stage was seen at 7%, which matched last year.

Summary:

Tuesday saw another quiet day of headlines in the corn market, as yesterday's crop conditions report was really the only talking point throughout the session today. Prices failed to make new contract lows throughout the day which could be a positive sign for the bulls, but there also didn't seem to be a lot of interest in pushing values higher, as the buying felt more like a profit taking bounce than anything else. Ongoing friendly weather forecasts remain the number one input to price discovery in the short term, with some sort of spark needed to begin a new trend in either direction.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $9.95, down 6 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.01 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $265.30, down $2.40/ton; new contract low at 264.50
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 54.56, up 0.39 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -6 3/4, down 3/4 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• Monthly soybean crush data released earlier this morning by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) for the month of June showed US crush at 185.709 mil bu, which was slightly above the average trade guess; the figure was also a new record for June, and up around 6% from last year.

• NOPA also reported that US soybean oil stocks as of June 31st stood at 1.366 bil lbs, which was below the average trade guess and down nearly 16% from last year; the figure was also the lowest June figure since 2004.

• Crop conditions in yesterday afternoon's report saw an unexpected 4% jump in the G/EX category to 70%, which is now 2% ahead of last year at this time. The report also showed the amount of crop blooming at 47% compared to 49% last year, and 15% of the crop is setting pods compared to 17% last year.

Summary:

News in the soybean market was slow for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as crush data for the month was largely as expected and offered little to either the bulls or the bears. New crop futures have continued to hold $10 for the time being which has been a good sign technically, but the longer the market hovers at or near this level, the more likely it becomes that it fails sooner than later.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.38, down 3 1/2 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.58 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 3/4, unchanged

📋 Market Headlines:

• Spring wheat conditions improved 4% in yesterday afternoon's report to 54% G/EX, which remains noticeably behind last year's rating of 77% at this time.

• Private Russian consultancy IKAR on Tuesday lowered its estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production by 0.5 MMTs to 84.0 MMTs, citing lower-than-expected yields in the southern part of the country. The group also lowered its export forecast a like amount to 42.0 MMTs.

• Cash-connected traders reported that Algeria's state grain agency purchased roughly 1 million tons of milling wheat in international tender that closed today; sources believe the origin was likely the Black Sea region, with bushels possibly coming from Ukraine, Russia or Bulgaria.

Summary:

Wheat news for Tuesday was mostly global, as there was little of note being talked about in regards to US harvest or the jump in spring wheat conditions. Final winter wheat conditions last week would argue for a crop that is slightly lower than what the USDA reported last week, but this will likely be debated into the August crop report.

📰 In Other News

• Livestock markets saw turn-around-Tuesday price action today and ended the day higher:
• August live cattle: $222.40, up $3.05
• August feeder cattle: $322.27, up $2.80; inside day higher
• August lean hogs: $103.97, up 70 cents; inside day higher

• Outside markets traded sharply mixed on mostly as expected inflation data this morning:
• Crude oil futures: down 20-30 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 480 points, the S&P500 index is down 40 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points; new contract highs for the S&P and the NASDAQ
• US $ Index: up 50-60 points; outside day higher

• President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that the US had reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, though there were little details available other than that the US would charge Indonesia a 19% tariff rate, while our products would not be tariffed into their country. Sources say there is no signed agreement, making it unclear whether an official announcement is expected sometime the rest of this week.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

⚡ Short-term Forecast:

• Weather forecasts at mid-day on Tuesday trended wetter into next week for most of the Midwest, but otherwise were largely unchanged from Monday. Generally speaking, most of the Corn Belt will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine, with there little to no threats present over the next five days.

📆 Extended Forecast:

• What threats there are lie in the extended forecast, and come mostly in the form of warm temperatures; 10-15 day outlooks show heat returning into next week and the end of the month, but do not show this heat lingering for an extended period of time, as the pattern stays active.

• Rainfall outlooks in the week two period were also little changed this afternoon, and continue to be in good agreement on the northern US and into the Midwest staying a wetter-than-average pattern into the end of July, while the west and southwest look to stay dry.