Corn and soybean futures were higher to wrap up the week this week, although well off their highs made earlier in the morning as volume and interest were fleeting into the close ahead of the three-day Fourth of July weekend. Though the week is ending for most, headlines for the day are far from over, as all eyes and ears will be on Des Moines, Iowa tonight, where President Trump is expected to make some sort of announcement regarding US ag trade. Stay tuned, and prepare for increased volatility Sunday evening when markets reopen.

Have a safe and enjoyable long holiday weekend!

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $4.20 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.37, up 3 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -16 3/4, down 1 1/4 cent
• For the week: CU was up 8 3/4 cents; CZ was up 10 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported daily sales flashes of 150,000 MTs of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year.

• Weekly corn sales in the week ending June 26th were seen at 533k MTs in the old crop, with featured buyers being Korea (273,700 MTs), Mexico (157,100 MTs), and Colombia (148,900 MTs); unknown destinations assigned out/canceled/rolled 164,800 MTs in the week, and Spain canceled 180 MTs.

• In the new crop, sales for the week totaled 940k MTs, with Mexico taking the bulk of this at 672k MTs; unknown destinations accounted for the other largest chunk, at 174k MTs.

• Lastly on the export front for Thursday, monthly census export data was released for the month of May, and showed corn exports in the month at 287 mil bu, which is above the USDA's inspection figure for the month of 239 mil bu. Cumulative census exports for the marketing year are now 177 mil bu above inspections at 2.09 bil bu.

Summary:

Both old and new crop corn futures finished the week higher on Thursday, as short covering related to this evenings Trump announcements was the main market theme throughout the day. Otherwise, there wasn't a lot overly new, with the ongoing themes of favorable weather, trade deal possibilities, and a large Brazilian crop remaining in place into next week.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.55 1/2, up 2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.49 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $277.40, up 60 cents/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 54.55, down 0.47 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): 6 1/4, up 3/4 cents
• For the week: SQ was up 22 1/4; SX was up 24 1/2; MQ was up $1.80/ton; LQ was up 2.07 cents/lb

📋 Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported daily sales flashes of 226,000 MTs of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year.
• Exporters also reported sales of 195,000 MTs of soybean cake and meal; of the total, 45,000 MTs is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year, and 150,000 MTs is for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

• Weekly export sales this morning for the week ending June 26th totaled 462k MTs in the old crop; featured buyer in the week was Egypt at 165k MTs, while unknown destinations also booked 190,500 MTs. New crop sales totaled 239k MTs, with Mexico booking 119,700 MT's of the total.

• Census exports for the month of May totaled just 58.6 mil bu, which was a marketing-year low; the figure is also roughly 17 mil bu above the USDA's inspection figure for the month. Cumulative census inspections for the year have reached 1.685 bil bu, which is roughly 46 mil bu above the USDA.

Summary:

The week ended in hurry up and wait mode in the soybean market, as the only thing anyone cares about is what President Trump might say in Iowa tonight regarding a potential trade deal with China. How the market opens Sunday evening will be almost entirely dependent on this, with price direction next week also likely largely driven by what is or isn't said. If an announcement isn't made regarding China specifically, any sort of trade deal regarding ag purchases will be seen as a positive amid an otherwise bearish back drop of large crop prospects and favorable weather.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.56 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.78 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -21 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents
• For the week: WU was up 16 cents; WZ was up 13 1/4 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report showed wheat sales in the week ending June 26th totaling 586k MT's, with the featured buyer in the week being the Philippines at 162k MTs; the Dominican Republic also took 59,700 MTs, and Mexico took 56,800 MTs.

• Census exports for May, which completes the marketing year for wheat, were seen at 79.4 mil bu, compared to 75.5 mil bu seen by the USDA. For the entire marketing year, census exports were just 8 mil MTs above USDA export figures at 810 mil bu.

Summary:

Wheat futures closed lower on Thursday after making new highs for the week earlier in the session, as news continues to be largely limited to harvest progress and crop quality chatter.

📰 In Other News

• Livestock markets ended the week sharply mixed, with cattle markets in the green and the hog market lower:
• August live cattle: $214.05, up $1.60
• August feeder cattle: $309.50, up 47 cents
• August lean hogs: $106.10, down $1.80

• Outside markets were strong to end the week on better-than-expected jobs figures in this morning's monthly updates:
• Crude oil futures: down 20-30 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 310 points, the S&P500 index is up 50 points, and the NASDAQ is up 210 points
• US $ Index: up 30-40 points

🌦️ Weather Outlook

⚡ Short-term Forecast:

• Mid-day weather runs trended drier across the central and western Corn Belt next week, with less than an inch of total rainfall now expected for most areas. How this develops over the weekend will be closely watched, with some areas in northern IL/IN and into eastern IA trending on the dry side.

• For the holiday weekend, scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the western and west-central Midwest, with precip amounts being scattered/variable and generally under an inch.

• Temperatures will stay mostly above average for the Midwest through the weekend, while cooler air is seen working its way east through the Plains into the early part of next week.

📆 Extended Forecast:

• Extended forecasts into mid-July are again little changed this afternoon, and continue to show above average precip potential through most all of the Corn Belt, while the only area of dryness concern resides in the western US in parts of NV and UT.

• 10-15 day temperature outlooks have trended warmer this week, most notably in southern Canada and the northeastern US, where well above air temps are now seen into mid-month. The western US also looks to stay, while stormy conditions keep temps closer to average in the south-central Plains and southern part of the country.